But that final piece — probably Pennsylvania, Florida or Arizona — hasn’t always given Mr. Biden a consistent or comfortable lead. It’s still too soon to say whether President Trump’s bounce will fade or endure, but Tuesday was arguably Joe Biden’s best day of state polls since the Republican National Convention. In polling lingo, this means they didn’t “weight by education,” and it’s critical for understanding modern polling and what went wrong in 2016. This is not an ordinary tracking poll. We might not even be aware that an election is close if we talk only to our like-minded friends and relatives. How is it possible for the race to teeter on the edge between a landslide and a close contest? State of the race at the end of the day: The same as it was on Friday: A solid lead for Joe Biden. There were a lot of polls. Election Poll: Biden Maintains Lead Over Trump With Likely Voters Joe Biden leads by 9 points against President Trump, who continues to face an uphill reelection battle. A closer look at polls of Florida and Wisconsin. Still, many of the same voters, in heavily white Iowa and two traditionally conservative Southern states, are not as dismissive of systemic racism as Mr. Trump is. Sometimes, that summary will be “nothing much happened,” and you can go about your day. In Wisconsin, where Mr Trump won by a razor thin margin in 2016, Mr Biden currently holds a 5 point lead. But if he’s up by only three points in the state, as today’s polls might suggest, maybe Pennsylvania — where there has been less polling recently — might be the better option for Mr. Biden to find his 270th electoral vote. It’s so good that it has tended to beat the average of all other polls in a race. Joe Biden has been leading by about seven points nationally for as long as this page has been on the internet, and there’s no indication that’s changing. Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%. The ABC/Post poll is a high-quality survey. Close races in Georgia, Iowa and Texas show President Trump’s vulnerability and suggest that Joseph Biden has assembled a formidable coalition, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. At some point soon, we’ll get the presidential results from the vaunted Ann Selzer poll of Iowa. There are other possible differences, like the effect of campaign ad spending. A seven-point lead from U.S.C./Dornsife, which remains about four points smaller than it was a week ago. But it turns out that the U.S.C. But the wave of state polling has come at a cost: fewer national polls. See how President Trump is polling against challenger Joe Biden as each vies to win the 2020 presidential election. But the poll joins a host of other high-quality surveys — including from CBS News/YouGov and The New York Times/Siena College — showing Mr. Biden ahead by at least nine points in the state. A strong day for Biden in the battlegrounds. Joe Biden’s eight-point lead nationally is propelled by a wide advantage among women and voters of color. And when it comes to these top issues, nearly all Trump and Biden supporters think their man is the right one for the job. But there are large gaps between Biden and Trump voters on the importance of these issues. At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Joe Biden, but there's a long way to go and things can change very quickly, especially when Donald Trump's involved. Data for Progress, and Biden’s discomfort. The state’s other Senate race, to fill the unexpired term of former Senator Johnny Isakson, is even more uncertain. Mr. Trump’s large advantage among men in Texas is enough to give him a small advantage there, 46 percent to 43 percent. On Wednesday, he was particularly competitive in these states: If you scan down the list, you won’t see too many polls suggesting that Mr. Biden is up by more than seven points (as he is nationwide) in Arizona, Florida or Pennsylvania. In the middle is an eight-point lead for Mr. Biden from NPR/Marist. * In Maine and Nebraska, two electoral votes are apportioned to the winner of the state popular vote, and the rest of the votes are given to the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district. Tip: The width in the code can be adjusted to best fit your space. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. Most say she is qualified to be president should that be necessary (57%). There weren’t many national polls today, but the handful we did get were largely consistent with their prior results and with a fairly stable race. Joe Biden has made significant gains in states Donald Trump won handily in 2016. The benefit of a panel survey is potentially significant: If the results change, it’s because the attitudes of the respondents change, not because of changes in the composition of the sample. A significant danger looming for Texas Republicans is that Mr. Trump’s hard-line immigration policies are increasingly out of step with where the state is today, and where it is heading. It’s great news for Mr. Biden, but it’s worth taking these results with a grain of salt. Simple as it is, “What do the polls say?” is by far the question I’m asked most — by my colleagues, my editors, my friends and family, and by hundreds of you on Twitter. The state has a huge educational divide among white voters: Mr. Biden routinely wins white college graduates in North Carolina polls in liberal bastions like Raleigh, Durham and Asheville, but Mr. Trump can lead white voters without a degree by 50 points in rural evangelical areas. It’s hard to say it’s an outlier without any other polls for comparison. And finally, the unrest in Kenosha last month seemed to give Mr. Trump another opening. Taken in isolation, the national polls we do have over the last week suggest that the race is stable or even moving a bit toward the president, who now trails by just six points in our average. If no candidate receives more than 50%, the top two will advance to a runoff. So far this week, we’ve received two polls of these states: a YouGov poll showing Mr. Trump up by just two points in Texas and a Democratic GBAO poll showing Biden up by three in Georgia. From there, he would need one more state: maybe Arizona (in conjunction with Nebraska’s Second District or Maine’s Second District) or Florida or Pennsylvania. You can find these states at the bottom of our poll average table on this page. Mr. Biden’s lead bounced back to seven points in our average as a result. And they weren’t as great for Mr. Biden as the state polls, raising some questions. (Weighting by education is critical for understanding modern polling and what went wrong in 2016.) NBC/Marist polls showed him with a significant lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s not hard to see why. Where is Mr. Biden’s best state poll result today, compared with the 2016 result? Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. As a result, U.S.C.’s results oscillated between a wide Biden lead and a tighter race, depending on whether the last week of interviews was the good or bad week for Mr. Biden. Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a wide lead over President Donald Trump in the national race for the White House, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Among Trump backers, 57% rate the economy as extremely important, while 37% of Biden voters agree. Most firms have conducted several national polls this year, so we can say how things have changed over recent months. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. Do you think that every eligible voter in Georgia will have a fair chance to participate in this November’s election? “It’s going to take a decade to fix the things that he is trying to dismantle,” Ms. Andre-Lindsay said of Mr. Trump. You’ll even see something we haven’t seen much of so far this year: the color red. You might also have fretted about your lowest national number from YouGov in a long time, or been disappointed that your dream of a Blue Texas was a little farther (down by three in our poll) from reality than you hoped. And it’s also worth mentioning that the Fox polls tilted pretty far to the left in key 2018 Senate races. Biden leads Trump by 9 points, 52% to 43%, among likely voters, the survey finds. Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m. eastern, we’ll... Dear Readers: On Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern, we’ll... KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Trial-Heat... Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow at 2 p.m. eastern for... Customize your map by changing one or more states. The district’s demographics have made it an even more plausible pickup opportunity for Mr. Biden. To be clear: It’s pretty unlikely that Mr. Biden is actually ahead by 16 points in Minnesota. In addition to leading among women, Ms. Greenfield is ahead by 10 points among voters older than 65, a group that Ms. Ernst won overwhelmingly when she captured her seat six years ago. Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call, via Associated Press. The polls have been wrong before, and they’ll be wrong again.But despite their flaws, polls remain the best way to measure attitudes across a huge and diverse country. State of the race at the end of the day: Still solid for Biden, and if the Ohio polls are any indication, a little better for him than it was yesterday. They were awfully good for Mr. Biden. That’s part of why the average of all polls is helpful. Another good day for Biden in Wisconsin. It’s a panel survey, which means respondents are contacted repeatedly. It has given us a really good look at several states where we received almost no high-quality polling in 2016, like Minnesota and Wisconsin. The state has a large share of white working-class voters, who swung hard to Mr. Trump in 2016. A look ahead to the bottom of the table. If so, it might lead to seemingly surprising results for Mr. Biden in overwhelmingly white states like Minnesota and Maine without corresponding national leads. Some were good and some were bad — whether in terms of quality or what it meant for your preferred candidate. (Yes, Texas). The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS August 12 through 15 among a random national sample of 1,108 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 987 registered voters. On Wednesday, I noted that if you penciled in Wisconsin and Michigan for Mr. Biden — given his recent run of strong leads there from high-quality pollsters — he would essentially be one battleground state away from crossing 270 electoral votes. The district is traditionally Republican, but Mr. Trump carried it by only two percentage points in 2016. There has been no shortage of good news for Mr. Biden in the Upper Midwest, and this weekend was no exception. Most of all, know that Maine is a very underpolled state. More of the same in the horse race. But Mr. Biden holds just under a five-point lead in Pennsylvania and a two-point lead in Florida, according to our averages, even as he fights to a draw in places where Democrats haven’t won in decades. But this time, it’s worth taking those results with a grain of salt: They’re not weighted by education. Men prefer the president to his Democratic challenger by 16 points, while women favor Mr. Biden by an eight-point margin. Mary McKinney, 48, of St. Charles, Iowa, said she supported Mr. Trump because of his plain-spoken manner but felt the Supreme Court process was moving “a little fast,” adding that she would not support efforts to outlaw abortion. The Des Moines Register poll of Iowa, conducted by Ms. Selzer, is always highly anticipated: She is one of the most respected pollsters in the country. Kamala Harris says appointing Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court would imperil health care and abortion rights. People of color, though, are more likely than White people to say her selection makes them more likely to back Biden (28% among people of color, 18% among whites). A four-point lead for Mr. Biden from AP/NORC, a particularly bad number for him when you consider the poll is of all Americans, not likely or registered voters, and its prior survey showed him up by 12 in June. That's an uptick since June, and about on par with Trump's ratings from earlier this year. Georgia is growing fast, and it’s increasingly diverse. His lead might not be 16 points, but it’s large, and it’s real. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 950 likely voters from Sept. 22-24, 2020. Polls by the same firm in the same state, on the other hand, tend to happen less frequently. And some of the state polling for Mr. Biden — like the Quinnipiac poll — comes from firms with a record of showing him doing particularly well. Harris joins the ticket with a narrowly positive favorability rating (41% have a favorable view, 38% unfavorable), which is an improvement since May when 32% of Americans said they had a positive view of her and 33% a negative one. You can see that for yourself on the right-hand column of our daily poll tables, if you haven’t noticed: What explains the difference? It found Mr. Biden up by eight points among registered voters, with a net one-point shift in the president’s direction since August. The top Democratic vote-getter is the Rev. The survey researchers also found that Americans' votes are pretty locked in. College graduates are likelier to take political surveys, but they are also far likelier to oppose Mr. Trump. Joe Biden and Donald Trump need 270 electoral votes to reach the White House. And finally, a big thanks to our friends at FiveThirtyEight, who compile polling data, including the set used here, and make it available to the public. It’s a somewhat curious release. Still, that a long-serving official such as Mr. Cornyn is not more firmly in control of the race illustrates the increasingly competitive nature of Texas elections and the G.O.P.’s struggles with suburban voters. He makes Richard Nixon look like a choir boy.”. Sometimes the polls are good for Mr. Biden. A state-national gap? released the results over two weeks, not just one, and they tell a totally different story. Well, everything else looked pretty good for Mr. Biden. Here’s a different way of looking at it: Mr. Trump can keep his hopes alive as long as he stays close in Pennsylvania, Florida and Arizona, but he’d be in serious jeopardy if any one of them slipped out of play. In Georgia and Texas, the election is also split along racial lines. Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead President Trump in the 2020 presidential election nationally by a substantial margin, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. View the results of 2020 election polls. Jorgensen pulls in 5%, while Hawkins gets 2%. In this case, if the pollster simply asks whether the respondent agrees that the winner of the election should replace Justice Ginsburg, most voters might say “yes.” But if you give the same respondents a second option — whether President Trump should choose the nominee — you can bet that plenty of Trump supporters would take the option, even though they might have agreed, if asked the other question, that the winner should decide. If Mr. Biden can match Mrs. Clinton among Hispanic voters, he’ll be in a strong position: Polls consistently show Mr. Biden running ahead of Mrs. Clinton among white voters. Those states remain close enough that Mr. Trump remains competitive. Voters are closely divided over which candidate would keep Americans safe from harm (50% say Biden would, 47% Trump). More also say Biden will unite the country and not divide it (55% Biden to 35% Trump). The Senate races in the three states also highlight the same forces that are propelling Mr. Biden’s candidacy. In Georgia, where there are two Senate races on the ballot, Republicans appear better positioned but are still facing highly competitive campaigns. 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Another poll, conducted by a Democratic firm, even found Mr. Harrison narrowly ahead. Trump still hanging on in Arizona? A poll that had seemed to show a shifting race really didn’t show much change at all. With one exception: three eye-opening state polls from Fox News. We Insist: A Timeline Of Protest Music In 2020, earned that much support with white voters. These polls share something important: They show tied races in states that Mr. Trump won fairly comfortably in 2016 (by nine in Iowa and by five in Georgia). The trend line here is decent enough for Mr. Biden, but the poll is not weighted for education, which usually means the poll underestimates the president. Biden continues run of strong state polls. So if pollsters don’t do anything to make sure they properly represent people without a college degree, they’ll have results that are too good for Democrats. In a close race, the presidential election could be decided by an unlikely spot: Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, including Omaha and most of its suburbs. In Iowa, Joe Biden seems to be securing large, broad gains among white voters. Biden tops Trump as better able to handle most of the issues tested in the poll: Racial inequality in the US, the coronavirus outbreak, health care and foreign policy. The Monmouth poll shows no signs of that weakness today, with Mr. Biden leading by 26 points among Hispanic voters, comparable to Hillary Clinton’s performance four years ago. The biggest eye-popper is Ohio. Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead President Trump in the 2020 presidential election nationally by a substantial margin, according to the … Mr. Trump’s tenuous hold on some of the largest red states in the country has presented Mr. Biden with unexpected political opportunities and stirred debate among Democrats about how aggressively to contest states far outside the traditional presidential battleground. But it serves as a simple reminder that there’s still a wide range of possible results on Nov. 3. It was even closer than familiar battleground states like Arizona or North Carolina. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in six key 2020 swing states, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll. If you’re a Biden supporter, you might have taken a measure of happiness from encouraging results in Ohio, Georgia and Iowa, including our own Times/Siena polls. The Texas result (Trump only +1) again raises the possibility that Mr. Biden could win in a landslide with more than 400 electoral votes. There was a significant gender gap in the 2016 election, too, but at that time it tilted toward Mr. Trump because men supported him so heavily, according to exit polls. About 56 percent of likely voters said they preferred to have the election act as a sort of referendum on the vacancy. (You may recall an eyepopper in the other direction from the ABC/Post poll last week, showing Mr. Biden with a 16-point lead in Minnesota. Best for last: On Friday, New NYT/Siena College polls in Maine, Arizona and North Carolina My colleagues Alexander Burns and Matt Stevens will have the story, with some key Senate results, posting first thing in the morning. Now about those Fox polls … The well-regarded Fox News polling team released three state surveys, in Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania. We often focus on the battleground states that decided the last election and seem likeliest to decide the next one. Add that to her 2.1-point victory in the popular vote, and maybe you’d guess Mr. Biden was up 10.8 points nationwide. State of the race at the end of the day: It still seems like a comfortable Biden lead. tracking. If you’ve been following along here, you’ll have noticed that many of the states with the biggest shifts toward Mr. Biden have been relatively white states in the North or Upper Midwest, like Maine, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Many pollsters didn’t weight by education in 2016, and it’s one of the major reasons the state polls were biased toward Hillary Clinton.
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